Saturday, February 12, 2011

Dictators Hunter Season is On

Stop supporting Tyrants First was Ben Ali in Tunisia which send waves to Egypt. Yesterday it was Mubarak. Today it looks Bouteflika in Algeria is in trouble. Could be Castro in Cuba the next in the line of fire?

The political landmark in Africa is changing, dramatically and so fast we are unable to predict where those countries are going. But a word is frequently used by western media, public statements by politicians of any political colour and bloggers. A word with too many meanings and too many controversial references: revolution.

You can turn your cable TV provider now and you will watch CNN spreading the “political consequences of the Egyptian revolution”. Then, you compare that statement with Iran’s Khomeini remarks about the similarities between “the Egyptian and Iranian revolution” and you will be shattered with a fear about what will be coming to Egypt.

Yesterday I was totally surprised by the remarks made by Rep. Ryan Paul in CNN. He said:

“Well, we've invested a lot of money in Mubarak, and I don't think it was a good investment.  It was stable for awhile, but it was building the resentment and the instability that finally burst out.”

He said more, much more: Egypt is the United States' 30-year mistake.

But it is not an statement made and shared by the Republican Party as a whole. And, I’m pretty sure, republicans are going to slash Obama’s administration out about the evolution in Egypt and in the middle east. Today, the red herring to the White House is Algeria and how Obama is going to help shaping nor a country on stake in Egypt but almost half a continent.

The question though is still in peril. To where Egypt is going to be leaning in the future? Will be a new Iran in Africa? Will Egypt build the first democratic Muslim country in the middle east? How will be the relations between Israel and Egypt? And what kind of role the future Egyptian authorities will play between Palestinians and Israelis?

The future of those places in Africa, even when it doesn’t look related with Cuba, are tied with the balance of power in Latin-America. The duet Castro-Chavez has been playing with Iranian Prime Minister Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as a puppet to make a “liberation front” against the north American imperialism, as they use to say.

Egypt future will affect the balance of power in the middle east and in the western Hemisphere. At this moment though, Cuba doesn’t look like it is in the front line to bring down its own bunch of dictators, but it is interesting how Castro’s ruling Communist Party newspaper downplayed reports of Egypt's large-scale pro-democracy protests: as usual, a few lines in its front page.

Fears and silence are crawling the Cuban government and no word is heard from its officials. Chavez, usually very outspoken in every occasion he finds, has been rarely quiet to switch to a more aggressive approach days before Mubarak’s ousting, calling the protesters westerners media inspired``. Predictable, Chavez. It was Castro suggestion, wasn’t it?

The door is open, the people of Egypt had spoken. Time is ticking, so what is the next step in Egypt?

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